Moshoeshoe Monare, Deputy Group Political Editor, Independent News and Media, has written a very apt article (‘Are they putting the country first’, 18 November 2008) about next year’s elections that highlights some of the critical policy issues that are being overlooked on the campaign trail. He writes that,
Political parties appear to have been caught off-guard; the ANC is no longer so sure about whether it wants early or delayed polls. Smaller parties are hoping for coalitions after the elections, but aren’t targeting specific constituencies. The two major parties, plus the new one, are woefully unprepared for the elections, and are facing a few hurdles as a result. Complacent, the ANC has been resting on its laurels.
Monare critiques each party’s campaign strategy and although his comments are broad and occasionally vague, he does make some very significant points:
Zuma’s election campaign messages do not quite give a sense of political direction, despite his claim that the response from the rallies demonstrates support. The party is on the defensive. Meanwhile, the breakaway Congress of the People (COPE) is banking on discontent, which is unsustainable. The party is ill-prepared and disorganised, and subtle personality clashes are already emerging. Its representatives’ bashing of Zuma-Malema comments is a short-term strategy that could collapse as soon as these two are out of the picture. The strategic reliance on multimedia communication appears sexy and cool for young, first time-voters.
But this is South Africa, not the US.
COPE is likely to increase its support after Christmas as more MPs, having nothing to lose, leave the ANC to join the new party.
The DA, also, is trying to capitalise on the vacuum left by the ANC’s internal battles. Its relaunch recently was a sign of that.
But it’s too late for Helen Zille – who has spent much of her 18-month leadership in Cape Town – to rebrand the party five months before the polls.
She says the redesign is not “a marketing exercise”.
Her determination to move the party to the centre might cost her the party’s traditional core support: white voters who shun right-wing parties such as the Freedom Front Plus.
If she moves from the centre-right, the country is likely to see the rise of rightist parties – a coalition led by the FF+ and Solidarity – to appeal to marginalised working-class whites.
Zille still has to battle the conservatives and the Tony Leonites from within – a battle that she should have fought and won months ago.
The black support she is looking for might be stolen by Cope, as the SA Institute of Race Relations has warned.
She might be lucky in that voters – especially young people and those belonging to the black middle class, who don’t necessarily vote with their hearts – want something more than Zuma.
The article is definitely worth a read, Monare makes the point that no one is really addressing the massive challenges that ANY party of government will necessarily inherit next year. These challenges are state-bound, but also significantly they are global. Provincial governments (especially with regards to lack of service delivery) will be the biggest headache to next year’s government. Hopefully, COPE and its potential coalition partners will shake up the ANC’s legacy of cronyism – the poor have suffered too long and it’s devastatingly undemocratic and embarassing to say the least.
One thing is certain, the people will speak next year, what remains uncertain is whether realistic, workable policies will be on the table in time.
November 18, 2008
Democracy, The Campaign Trail